Citizens for Tax Justice
1311 L Street, NW
Washington, DC
 Wednesday, Dec.1, 1999
Contact: Bob McIntyre,
202/626-3780
$1.7 Trillion Bush Tax Plan Targets Two-Thirds of Tax Breaks to Top 10%
Analysis Updated 12/2/99

A more detailed analysis of the Bush plan is available in HTML or PDF format.
Note: The Bush plan has been revised since this analysis was released. To see CTJ's analysis of the revised plan, click here.

Related CTJ Publications:
The tax cut plan announced today by GOP presidential candidate George W. Bush would reduce federal revenues by more than $1.7 trillion over ten years, according to an analysis of the plan released today by Citizens for Tax Justice. The study found that almost two-thirds of Bush's proposed tax cuts would go to the best-off 10 percent of Americans.

According to the analysis:

  • Taxpayers in the lowest 60 percent of the income scale would get only 11 percent of Bush's tax cuts. Their average annual tax reduction would be $249.
  • The bottom 20 percent of taxpayers would get an average cut of $43 a year.
  • In contrast, the best-off 10 percent of all taxpayers would get 61.6 percent of Bush's proposed tax cuts, and an average tax cut of $8,362 a year.
  • The wealthiest one percent of all taxpayers would get an average tax reduction of $50,166 a year.

"In terms of who benefits the most, George W. Bush's tax plan looks remarkably like the $800 billion tax cut plan passed by Congress last summer and vetoed by President Clinton," said Robert S. McIntyre, director of Citizens for Tax Justice. "The biggest difference is that the Bush plan is even more irresponsible, since it would cost twice as much."

The estimates include Bush's proposals to repeal the federal estate tax on the very largest estates, permanently extend the corporate research tax credit, cut personal income tax rates, allow a deduction for charitable contributions for non-itemizers, allow a deduction for two-earner couples and boost the child tax credit. The estimates do not include Bush's proposal to increase the annual contribution limit for Education Savings Accounts from the current $500 to $5,000. The increased interest on the national debt that the Bush plan would entail is excluded from the ten-year revenue loss estimates.

The analysis was performed using the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy Tax Model, a widely respected tool for analyzing the revenue and distributional effects of tax proposals. For more information about the ITEP Tax Model,  click here.

Tables detailing the results of the analysis follow.

Effects of Major Elements of George W. Bush’s Tax Plan
(Annual effects at 1999 income levels, $-billions except averages)
Income Group Income Range Average Income Average Tax Cut % of Total Tax Cut
Lowest 20% Less than $13,600 $ 8,600 $ –43 0.6%
Second 20% $13,600–24,400 18,800 –203 3.0%
Middle 20% $24,400–39,300 31,100 –501 7.4%
Fourth 20% $39,300–64,900 50,700 –1,043 15.4%
Next 15% $64,900–130,000 86,800 –1,906 21.1%
Next 4% $130,000–319,000 183,000 –5,337 15.7%
Top 1% $319,000 or more 915,000 –50,166 36.9%
ALL   $ 50,800 $ –1,348 100.0%
ADDENDUM
Bottom 60% Less than $39,300 $ 19,500 $ –249 11.0%
Top 10% $92,500 or more 218,000 –8,362 61.6%
Note: Income break points have been revised to reflect updates in the ITEP Microsimulation Model.


Estimated Revenue Effects of the George W. Bush Tax Plan
Fiscal 2002 to Fiscal 2011, $-billions
(fiscal years) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2002-06 2002-11
Income Tax Cuts $ –25.5 –64.8 –81.4 –120.3 –162.6 –192.9 –202.6 –212.7 –223.4 –234.5 –454.5 –1,520.6
Estate Tax Cuts — –3.1 –3.2 –6.8 –10.7 –14.9 –23.5 –32.9 –47.5 –49.9 –23.7 –192.5
R&E Tax Credit — — –0.3 –2.0 –2.7 –2.8 –2.9 –3.0 –3.1 –3.3 –5.0 –20.1
TOTALS $ –25.5 –67.8 –84.9 –129.0 –175.9 –210.7 –229.0 –248.7 –274.0 –287.7 –483.2 –1,733.3
Source: Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy Tax Model.
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