Citizens for Tax Justice , 202-626-3780 April 25, 2001
Treasury Press Release Confirms CTJ Estimates of Bush Tax Plan's Demographics--But Leaves Out What Taxpayers Really Need to Know

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An April 24, 2001 press release from the Bush Treasury Department confirms previous estimates by Citizens for Tax Justice about the aggregate effects of the Bush tax proposals on various demographic groups. But the Bush release fails to tell average taxpayers what the Bush plan will actually mean for them.

Treasury offers summary statistics about the fully-phased-in size of the Bush income tax cuts and the number of taxpayers who would receive tax reductions--for all taxpayers and selected subgroups, including families with children, single parents, and seniors. Treasury's findings are similar to figures released by CTJ earlier this year.

Unlike CTJ's estimates, however, Treasury does not provide information about the large number of taxpayers who would receive no benefit from the Bush tax proposals. Treasury also fails to provide information on the median, or typical, tax cuts under the Bush plan for taxpayers in the various demographic groups.

Treasury & CTJ Estimates of the Effects of the Bush Income Tax Cuts
Demographic Group Treasury says (2002 levels) CTJ says (2001 levels)
# with (mill.) Average with $-bill. % with Typical tax cut # with (mill.) Average with $-bill. % with Typical tax cut
All taxpayers 103 $1,117 $115.1 not available 97 $1,233 $119.1 74% $500
Families with children 36 1,617 58.2 not available 34 1,836 61.5 73% 1,114
Single parents* 8 712 5.8 not available 8 826 7.0 52% 326
Seniors 13 892 12.0 not available 12 1,076 12.9 51% 150
Single, non-elderly, without kids not available not available 32 535 17.1 80% 283
*Treasury says its figures are for “single moms”; CTJ’s figures include all single parents.
Notes: Both set of estimates include the President's proposed income tax rate cuts, increased child credit, second-earner deduction and charitable deduction for non-itemizers, fully phased in. The “Average with” figures show the average tax cuts only for those with tax cuts—they exclude taxpayers who get no benefit from the Bush proposals and are heavily weighted by the very large tax cuts at the top of the income scale. In contrast, the “Typical” figures show what the median taxpayer in each group would get from the Bush income tax proposals.
Sources: U.S. Treasury Department, 4/24/2001. ITEP Tax Model, Feb. 2001.