Note to Readers: This is the third of a six part series on tax reform in the states. Over the coming weeks, The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) will highlight tax reform proposals and look at the policy trends that are gaining momentum in states across the country. Previous posts in this series have provided an overview of current trends and looked in detail at “tax swap” proposals. This post focuses on personal income tax cuts under consideration in the states.
While not as dramatic as wholesale repeal of the income tax, five states this year are likely to consider regressive income tax cuts that will compromise their ability to adequately fund public services now and in the future.
In Indiana, Governor Pence campaigned last fall on cutting the state’s already low, flat personal income tax rate from 3.4 to 3.06 percent, and has shoehorned that idea into a budget proposal that also fails to help schools that are “still reeling from the cuts” enacted during the recent recession. The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) found that Pence’s tax plan would primarily benefit the state’s most affluent residents: 56 percent of the benefits would go to the best-off 20 percent of Indiana residents, while one in three of the state’s poorest residents would see no tax cut at all. The South Bend Tribune, among others, has urged lawmakers to “pass on this tax cut” because of its high revenue cost and the way in which it would add to the unfairness (PDF) already present in Indiana’s tax code.
In Oklahoma, Governor Fallin has significantly scaled back her tax cut ambitions from last year. Rather than aiming for a fundamental restructuring of the income tax, the Governor has proposed simply repealing the state’s top personal income tax bracket, thereby cutting the state’s top rate from 5.25 to 5.0 percent. The Oklahoma Policy Institute explains that this proposal “would take $106 million from Oklahoma schools, public safety, and other core state services without offering any way to pay for it.” And ITEP’s new Who Pays? report shows that last time Oklahoma cut its top income tax rate, in 2012, the vast majority of the benefits (PDF) went to the highest-income taxpayers in the state. Meanwhile, State Senator Anderson has once again proposed a dramatic flattening of the income tax that would actually raise taxes on most of the state’s lower- and moderate income residents.
In Montana, two different proposals for cutting personal income tax rates have been floated in recent weeks. A House proposal to cut the bottom income tax bracket has already been defeated, with Democrats opposing it because of its revenue cost and some Republicans opposing the idea of tax relief for the poor, despite the disproportionate impact (PDF) the state’s tax system currently has on low-income families. Meanwhile, a Senate bill to repeal the top personal income tax bracket and cut the next tax rate is still alive. A small portion of the bill would be paid for through scaling back the state’s regressive preference for capital gains income and hiking the state’s corporate income tax rate. Overall, however, the bill would reduce both the fairness of Montana’s tax system and the revenue it generates.
In Arkansas, the debate over the income tax has yet to heat up, but the House Revenue and Taxation Committee Chairman says he’s “very bullish” about the possibility of enacting a large tax cut, and other Republicans in the legislature are reportedly discussing options for cutting the income tax.
Finally, in Wisconsin, rumors briefly swirled that there may be a push to eliminate the state’s income tax and replace it with a much larger sales tax, akin to what’s been proposed in Louisiana, Nebraska, and North Carolina. Governor Walker, however, responded by saying that he will wait and see how those debates play out in other states before deciding whether to advocate for such a change in 2015. In the meantime, the Governor says he will propose what he claims will be a “middle-class” tax cut of about $340 million. Assembly Speaker Robin Vos is hoping for a proposal of at least that size. The Governor’s budget proposal is due out on February 20, and by then we should have a better idea of whether the plan will actually be aimed at middle-income Wisconsinites, as well as its true price tag.