With Congress out of Washington for the August recess, more and more reporters and opinion makers are turning their attention to the enormous decisions on tax policy that await lawmakers when they return.

Anti-Tax Lawmakers Ignoring Public Opinion

The public supports President Obama's approach to the Bush tax cuts. A new CNN poll finds that only 31 percent of respondents think that Congress should extend the Bush tax cuts for the very rich as well as everyone else. This is in keeping with previous polls with similar results.

The main justification given by anti-tax lawmakers and activists for ignoring public opinion on this matter is that higher taxes on the rich, they claim, will hurt business investment and therefore hurt job creation. But a growing chorus of analysts agree that allowing the Bush tax cuts to expire for the rich will not harm the economy.

Anti-Tax Lawmakers Ignoring Rational, Informed Economic Analysis

For example, Allan Sloan, senior editor for Fortune and a columnist for the Washington Post, writes that "From the start of the income tax through 2003, dividends were taxed as regular income, and capital gains were treated far less favorably than now. Somehow both the republic and the financial markets survived. They'll survive higher rates, too."

Sloan provides a refreshingly calm approach to a subject that sends many people into hysterics: the impact of taxes on investment.

For example, he points out that the 2003 tax cut bill signed by President Bush "set dividend taxes for the high-bracket crowd at preferential rates for the first time and brought the rate on long-term capital gains to its lowest point since 1941, according to the tax publishing firm CCH. But that didn't exactly result in a bull market. According to Wilshire Associates, whose numbers I'm using throughout this column, the U.S. stock market rose only 14.6 percent from the May 5, 2003, tax cut through Obama's election on Nov. 4, 2008... That price gain, about 2.5 percent a year compounded, was less than half the historical rate."

In Sloan's view, the ups and downs of the stock market have little if anything to do with tax rates. He goes on to say, "Since Obama's election, the market has been very good. In fact, the market's 10.4 percent rise during Obama's first 100 days in office bested tax-cutting Ronald Reagan (a 4 percent gain for his first 100 days) and George W. Bush (a 2.3 percent loss for the equivalent period)."

Higher taxes on the very rich will not reduce their investment in stocks and bonds and also will not reduce their investments in their own businesses that they actively operate (as we have explained elsewhere).

When it comes to job creation, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office agrees that the other measures that have been discussed in Congress (like aid to state and local governments and extended unemployment benefits) are many times more effective than income tax cuts for the rich.

On Thursday, Senate offices received a letter calling for the expiration of the Bush tax cuts for the rich from Americans for Responsible Taxes, and coalition of non-profits, labor unions, faith-based groups and think-tanks. The letter was signed by 50 organizations including Citizens for Tax Justice.

President Obama pledged to allow the Bush income tax cuts to expire for the two percent of taxpayers who have adjusted gross income in excess of $250,000 ($200,000 for unmarried taxpayers). Democratic leaders in the Senate have indicated that they want to vote in September to extend the Bush income tax cuts for everyone else (the other 98 percent of taxpayers). Many Republican Senators are expected to oppose any bill to extend the income tax cuts for 98 percent of taxpayers because they will demand that they be extended for the richest two percent as well.

A few Senate Democrats have indicated that they would support extending the income tax cuts even for the rich for some period of time, but it is unclear whether they would go so far as to vote against any bill that extends the tax cuts for "only" 98 percent of taxpayers. Because of the bizarre Senate practice of requiring 60 votes to enact any legislation, it is conceivable that the Republicans would be able to block an extension of the income tax cuts for 98 percent of taxpayers over their opposition to allowing tax cuts to expire for the richest two percent.

The letter from Americans for Responsible Taxes points out that public opinion and the opinion of economists and analysts at the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and elsewhere are firmly in favor of allowing the tax cuts for the rich to expire. CBO analyzed several policy options to create jobs and found that income tax cuts generally would be the least effective, and that income tax cuts for the rich would be particularly ineffective.

Technically, the approach being discussed by President Obama and the Democrats would extend the reductions in income tax rates for all but the top two income tax brackets. Those top two brackets would be adjusted so that no one with AGI below $250,000 ($200,000 for unmarried taxpayers) would fall within them. Limits on personal exemptions and itemized deductions would also come back into effect for taxpayers above the $200,000/$250,000 threshold.

The letter also points out that even the richest two percent of taxpayers (those who would be affected by the top two income tax rates) would benefit from the extended rate reductions in the lower brackets, so even the richest two percent would not entirely lose their income tax cuts.

The main Republican talking point to justify extending the income tax cuts for the richest two percent appears to be that any other approach will harm small businesses. However, reports from Citizens for Tax Justice, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, and the CBO analysis mentioned above, all explain why income tax cuts for the rich would not help small businesses to expand and create jobs.

After a schedule packed with recovery measures, health care, financial reform and job creation, members of Congress are finally turning their attention to the Bush tax cuts, which expire at the end of this year. President Obama and Democratic leaders in Congress propose to extend the Bush tax cuts for all but the richest two percent of taxpayers, those who make over $250,000 a year (over $200,000 for unmarried taxpayers).

Rumors are flying that Republicans would block such legislation — meaning they would block tax cuts for 98 percent of taxpayers — because they oppose allowing them to expire for the richest two percent. That will have interesting consequences, given that a large majority of Americans think that the Bush tax cuts should expire at least for those who make over $250,000 a year.

Previously released figures from Citizens for Tax Justice show that the Republicans' approach to the Bush tax cuts would result in a $54,000 break, on average, for the richest one percent of taxpayers. (State-by-state figures are also included).

A new op-ed written by CTJ and appearing in several papers today explains that the very Senators who have blocked relatively small job creation measures (which economists agree are more effective than tax cuts) are the same Senators who want to increase the deficit by a trillion dollars in order to extend the Bush tax cuts for the rich.

Read the op-ed.

On July 14, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, chief economic adviser for John McCain’s presidential campaign and former director of the Congressional Budget Office, gave written and oral testimony to the Senate Finance Committee concerning the Bush tax cuts. Because these tax cuts expire at the end of 2010, Congress must decide which portions of them to extend or make permanent, and which portions should expire as scheduled.

Holtz-Eakin argued for permanently extending the Bush income tax cuts for the rich, while dropping expansions in the Earned Income Tax Credit and Child Credit that benefit working class people. He also oddly asserted that raising revenue will not reduce deficits. He went on to repeat some common misconceptions about businesses and their reaction to tax rates.

The overall thrust of Holtz-Eakin’s testimony was that taxes need to be lower on the rich (to encourage them to work, save and invest) and higher on the poor (to encourage them to work).

A new report from Citizens for Tax Justice explains that, to make his case, Holtz-Eakin endorsed several myths about the Bush tax cuts.

Read the report.

A Washington Post editorial earlier this week declared, "Senate Republicans, committed as they are to preventing the debt from mounting further, can't approve an extension of unemployment benefits because it would cost $35 billion. But they are untroubled by the notion of digging the hole $678 billion deeper by extending President Bush's tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans."

Well, that's a little unfair, because Congressional Republicans actually want to increase the deficit by a full trillion dollars by extending the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy.

The $678 billion is just the cost of making the Bush income tax cuts for the richest two percent of taxpayers permanent. (President Obama and Republicans agree that they should be made permanent for the other 98 percent.) Republicans have also been pushing for years to make permanent Bush's repeal of the federal tax on the estates of millionaires. This would add over $300 billion during the first decade when its costs would be fully felt, compared to Obama's more restrained (but still awfully generous) proposal to cut the estate tax.

As the Post explains, Senate Republican Whip Jon Kyl recently said that the cost of new spending should be offset, but the revenue loss from tax cuts should not. According to Talking Points Memo, Republican Senator Judd Gregg explained that new government spending is "growing the government" and therefore should be offset, presumably with cuts in spending, but tax cuts should not be offset.

Of course, deficit-financed tax cuts have to be paid for one day, and that could be done through tax hikes. Congressional Republicans might believe that Congress will be forced to shrink government when revenues decline, but that obviously didn't happen after the Bush tax cuts were enacted.

Senate Republicans Bring Back Supply-Side Economics

But the real prize for articulating their position goes to Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell. When asked about this, he replied, "That's been the majority Republican view for some time, that there's no evidence whatsoever that the Bush tax cuts actually diminished revenue. They increased revenue, because of the vibrancy of these tax cuts in the economy."

That's right. The most powerful Republican alive believes that when Congress cuts taxes, the result is that revenues increase.

This is the extreme version of "supply-side economics." The basic idea behind this school of thought is that tax cuts can change incentives to invest so much that they result in huge economic growth, which results in increased incomes and therefore increased income tax payments that more than make up for the loss of tax revenue resulting directly from the tax cuts.

CTJ has already explored in great detail the empirical evidence against this idea, the people who promote it anyway, and the fiscal disasters that have resulted.

But don't take our word for it. President George W. Bush's own Treasury also concluded that tax cuts do not increase revenue or come close to paying for themselves.

Douglas Holtz-Eakin Contradicts McConnell

So have the Republicans obtained some new support for supply-side economics since then? Apparently not, since the Republican witness at Wednesday's Finance Committee hearing on the Bush tax cuts conceded that they did not pay for themselves.

Douglas Holtz-Eakin, former director of the Congressional Budget Office and an adviser to the presidential campaign of John McCain testified at the hearing in favor of making permanent all the Bush tax cuts (including those for the richest taxpayers). According to his written testimony (which he paraphrased during the hearing), making the tax cuts permanent would have a positive economic effect that would reduce the direct cost of the tax cuts by 22 percent.

We have no idea how he came to that figure. But Holtz-Eakin is the closest thing the Republicans have to a reasonable and credible economist who will promote their views. (Even though we think he's wrong about most of what he says, as we explained in the previous article.) Since Holtz-Eakin is the best economist the Republicans have on their side, one would think that Senator McConnell would get on the same page.

Read the report.

As Congress prepares to take up legislation to boost small business job creation in the following weeks, some lawmakers argue that the legislation must extend parts of the Bush tax cuts that benefit the very rich.

Two ideas along these lines are being discussed. One is to extend income tax reductions for the very rich, at least for taxpayers who can be somehow classified as “small business” taxpayers. The second is to eliminate most of the federal tax on the estates of millionaires. As the new CTJ report explains, both of these proposals would allow the rich to continue to enjoy most of the tax cuts they received under President Bush while doing nothing to create or protect jobs.

Extending income tax cuts for small business owners is unlikely to boost job creation because:

— President Obama has already pledged to extend the Bush income tax cuts for 98 percent of taxpayers. Only 3 to 5 percent of small business owners are wealthy enough to lose some of their tax cuts under President Obama’s proposal.

— Hiring decisions are generally not based on federal income taxes, but are based on whether or not there is demand for the goods or services that a business provides.

— Economists and analysts, including those at the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office, have concluded that extending income tax cuts would be the least effective of several policy options to create jobs.

— Enacting a “carve-out” or special break for “small businesses” would simply encourage all rich taxpayers to disguise their income as “small business” income.

Cutting the estate tax is also unlikely to boost job creation because:

— An even smaller percentage of small businesses would be affected by the federal estate tax under President Obama’s proposal.

— Those few small businesses affected by the estate tax already enjoy special breaks that make it more manageable for closely held businesses and farms.

— It is very unlikely that the estate tax causes millionaires (the only people affected by it) to work less or invest less and therefore create fewer jobs. If anything, the estate tax could have the opposite effect.

Read the report.

The Coalition on Human Needs is circulating a sign-on letter for organizations in support President Obama's proposals to make permanent some of provisions in the recovery act that expand refundable tax credits to help working families.

If you are authorized to sign on behalf of an organization, please sign your group onto this letter to preserve and build upon tax credits for low-income children, working families, and students.  The deadline is Friday, April 30.

Read the letter. 

Sign the letter. 

CHN is seeking local, state, and national organizations to sign this letter, which will be sent to every Representative and Senator in Congress.  Congregations, service providers, labor, civil rights, social action, policy, and advocacy groups are all asked to join the letter. PLEASE SHARE THIS INFORMATION WITH OTHERS IN YOUR STATE.  

Poverty and hardship are rising across the nation.  Tax credits can help families buy what they need, protecting children and boosting the economy too.  The Child Tax Credit, Earned Income Tax Credit, and American Opportunity Tax Credit (for low-income college students) can make a real difference in providing income to millions of families.  But if Congress does not act, these tax credits will expire.  

Why it matters:  A family with two children with a parent working full-time at the minimum wage now receives about $1,750 from the Child Tax Credit.  If the current tax credit law expires, this low-income family will lose $1,500 — and receive only $250.  If the law expires, families with 3 or more children will lose up to $629 in their Earned Income Tax Credit.  And, if the law expires, low-income students will lose up to $1,000 to help with their college expenses.

At a time when unemployment is high, and near depression levels among people with little education, in communities of color, and in some urban and rural areas, this is no time to drastically reduce the help low-income tax credits provide.

The voices of local, state, and national organizations are needed to show Congress very strong support for preserving and improving these tax credits.  Please add your voice by signing this letter — and forward this request to other organizations.

Congress will act on extending tax cuts for the middle class, and must also decide about tax cuts for the rich and for business interests.  Please make sure they remember the millions of low-income families who need help the most — and whose help provides the biggest economic boost.

The 2009 federal income taxes that come due on April 15 have been cut for nearly all working Americans, including Americans at all income levels, by the Recovery Act signed by President
Obama last year. But no one seems to be aware of this. Recent polls indicate that the vast majority of Americans think that the President either raised taxes or left them the same for 2009.

CTJ has new state-specific reports that aim to clear up this widespread misunderstanding. They show that the President cut taxes for working people at all income levels for 2009 and they show who was helped by each individual tax break.

Read the fact sheet and report for your state.

Americans know that taxes are necessary to fund the services government provides like roads, schools, and social security. We contribute so that our country can build and maintain the necessary infrastructure and public goods and provide a safety net for all of us. At the same time, Americans think that the wealthiest among us aren't paying their fair share.

And yet those who support the previous administration's policies of slashing taxes for the rich will be very effective in making their voices heard on Tax Day. They have a message that sounds appealing (usually involving lower taxes with no negative repercussions) and a network of supporters with plenty of cash to amplify their message.

The following list describes how you can cut through the nonsense and stand up for tax fairness this April 15.

CTJ: Obama Cut Taxes for 98 Percent of Working Americans
CTJ has a new fact sheet showing that President Obama has cut taxes for 98 percent of working Americans in 2009. State-by-state reports are included. Polls show that the vast majority of people think that Obama either raised their taxes or left them the same for 2009, and these publications aim to clear up that widespread misunderstanding. 

US PIRG: How Much Tax Havens Cost Ordinary Americans
The U.S. Public Interest Research Group reminds taxpayers that, while we do our duty and file our taxes, there are corporations and individuals out there who shirk this responsibility by using offshore tax haven countries to hide assets. On April 15, U.S. PIRG is sponsoring post office demonstrations and releasing a new report Tax Shell Game: What Do Tax Dodgers Cost You? They are encouraging folks to send in post cards to their Members of Congress to send a message to Washington that the American people deserve a better system.

Jobs with Justice: Tax Wall Street Day of Action
Jobs with Justice is organizing a Tax Wall Street Day of Action on April 15th. They are calling on supporters to deliver letters to national banks and collect petition signatures at local post offices as Americans stop by to mail their tax returns. The petition will ask Congress to tax Wall Street speculation.

UFE: Take the Tax Fairness Pledge
United for a Fair Economy has created the Responsible Wealth Tax Fairness Pledge where you can estimate your savings from the Bush tax cuts and pledge them to an organization that works for tax fairness. By the end of 2010 the Bush tax cuts will have cost more than $2.5 trillion in revenue that could have been used for critical investments in education, infrastructure or to reduce the deficit.

Are You Tired of the Tea Party? Join the Other 95%
President Obama cut taxes for 95 percent of working Americans (or 98 percent, if you count AMT relief) in 2009. But only 12 percent know it. Join the "other 95 percent" and say "Thanks for our tax cut, President Obama."

Or Join the Coffee Party
Tired of the tempest in a teapot, Coffee Party USA was started to encourage folks to "get together and drink cappuccino and have real political dialogue with substance and compassion." You can join the movement or start your local chapter here. Their motto: Wake Up and Stand Up.

IPS: More About the Way the World Is
The Institute for Policy Studies offers an analysis of the federal income tax system that seems more like two different systems: one for the wealthy and powerful and another one for the rest of us. Their paper includes analyses of the "flat tax," the national debt, and the myths about tax cuts for the wealthy allegedly spurring the economy.

CBPP on the Tax Foundation Tax Freedom Day Report: If Only We Were Rich
The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities has published a report refuting the oft-quoted numbers from the Tax Foundation about how many days people work each year just to pay their federal income taxes. As CBPP points out, the analysis is heavily skewed by the amount of income tax paid by the wealthy. Eighty percent of U.S. households pay tax at a lower rate than the Tax Foundation's estimated "average" federal obligation.

Wealth for the Common Good: Shifting Responsibility
Wealth for the Common Good has released a report Shifting Reponsibility: How 50 Years of Tax Cuts Have Benefited America's Wealthiest Taxpayers detailing how America's highest earners have seen their taxes drop by as much as two-thirds over the last 50 years. The trend of "asking less from those with more" has contributed to perhaps the greatest income inequality the U.S. has ever seen. The report calls for various measures to mitigate this dangerous trend and restore revenue to the federal treasury.

NPP: Where Did Your 2009 Federal Income Tax Dollars Go?
The National Priorities Project has released a report Where Do Your Tax Dollars Go - Tax Day 2010 showing how federal tax dollars were spent in 2009. Out of every dollar, 26.5 cents goes for military-related spending, 13.6 cents goes to pay interest on the debt, and only 2 cents goes towards education.

CAP: Why Cutting Discretionary Spending Won't Solve Our Budget Imbalance
The Center for American Progress has developed an interactive pie chart to help you learn about the federal government's discretionary spending, including whether cuts in those programs will really help reduce the federal deficit. Look at What is Non-Defense Discretionary Spending here.

UFE: How Will the States Close Their Budget Gaps?
United for a Fair Economy's Tax Fairness Organizing Collaborative just published a report Solutions that Work for Main Street: Progressive Guidelines for Closing Recessionary State Budget Gaps."  The report identifies pragmatic principles for closing state budget gaps in ways that enhance economic recovery, ongoing stability, and more widely shared prosperity. Also see their report Leaving Money on the Table showing that residents in states that rely heavily on the sales tax instead of an income tax pay much more federal income taxes as a result.

CTJ: Don't Believe the Hype About the Rich Paying All the Taxes
On Tax Day, you'll hear anti-tax people say that the rich are paying a disproportionate share of taxes. They're wrong. When you look at the tax system as a whole, including federal, local, and state income, payroll, excise, and sales taxes, the system is just barely progressive. A CTJ analysis shows that when you include those taxes, effective tax rates are almost flat.

The Medicare tax reform proposal included in the President's proposal several weeks ago was slightly modified in the compromise health bill that was released by Democratic leaders in Congress yesterday.

Tax policy is an area in which two people can look at the exact same set of facts and come to exactly opposite conclusions. Take the American Enterprise Institute's latest assault on the Medicare tax reform that President Obama has included in his health care reform plan.

The President has adopted an idea that CTJ has championed for months, to change the Medicare tax so that it no longer exempts investment income and to make the tax more progressive. The President would raise the Medicare tax rate for earnings exceeding $200,000 for unmarried taxpayers and $250,000 for married taxpayers, and he would apply the existing 2.9 percent Medicare tax to investment income for those with adjusted gross income (AGI) above $200,000/$250,000.

CTJ's recent report on this proposal found that only 2.3 percent of taxpayers would be affected by this tax in 2014. (The tax would go into effect in 2013).

But that's no comfort to Alan D. Viard and Amy Roden, who argue against this tax reform in AEI's online journal. They write:

"Of course, the high-income cutoffs mean that the new Medicare tax wouldn’t apply to most American savers. But the savers hit by the tax are precisely the ones who provide the largest volume of funds to finance investment in our economy. In 2007, tax returns from households with incomes greater than $200,000 reported 47 percent of all interest income, 60 percent of all dividends, and a staggering 84 percent of all net capital gains. We can’t afford to discourage this group from investing in America’s future."

So they fully agree with us that the sort of income they don't want Congress to tax predominately flows to the rich.

As a judge would say, the facts in this case are not in dispute.

What is in dispute is whether we have to avoid taxing the types of income that mostly flow to the wealthy in order to keep our economy running smoothly. AEI says yes, we need to have preferential rates in some taxes for these types of incomes (like the capital gains and dividends break in the income tax) and wholesale exemptions in other taxes (like the Medicare tax).   

We disagree. We have seen no evidence that the economy functions better when taxes on investment income are slashed or eliminated. Even when it comes to capital gains, which is where libertarians think they have their strongest case, there is no evidence that tax cuts have enhanced economic efficiency. Capital gains income certainly has fluctuated as a result of the ups and downs in the overall economy, and libertarians often attribute the upswings to tax cuts for capital gains. Sadly for them, capital gains realizations have, throughout the Bush years and today, been lower than they were at the end of the Clinton years, when the top rate for capital gains was higher.

Taxing investment income the same way that income from work is taxed is only fair. The President's Medicare tax reform is a step in the right direction. It would end the current exemption in the Medicare tax for investment income to help finance a health care reform that really will help our economy to function more efficiently.

A new report from Citizens for Tax Justice examines the Medicare tax reform included in the health care plan recently put forward by President Obama. The report concludes that this reform would affect only 2.3 percent of taxpayers in 2014. The richest one percent would pay about 84 percent of the resulting tax increase, and the richest five percent would pay virtually all of the tax increase.

The report also discusses one flaw in the President's proposal: It would preserve what is often called the "John Edwards loophole," which is a scheme that some wealthy owners of "S corporations" use to avoid the Medicare tax.

Read the report.

New data from the IRS show that in 2007 the richest 400 taxpayers in America increased their incomes by 31 percent over the previous year, increased their share of total income in America, and paid an even lower effective tax rate than ever before.

Writing for Tax Analysts, David Cay Johnston finds that the average income of the richest 400 grew from $263.3 million in 2006 to $344.8 million in 2007. Meanwhile, their effective income tax rate fell from 17.17 percent in 2006 to 16.62 percent in 2007.

As usual, a major cause of the low effective tax rates is the preferential rate for capital gains and stock dividends, which are taxed at a top rate of 15 percent instead of the top rate of 35 percent that applies to other income for the very rich. Capital gains made up 66.3 percent of income for the top 400 in 2007, up from 62.8 percent in 2006.

The data seem to highlight the need to allow the Bush tax cuts, which cut the top rate for capital gains and stock dividends to 15 percent, to expire as scheduled at the end of 2010.

The report released last week by Citizens for Tax Justice on the President's budget argued that Congress should at least allow the Bush tax cuts to expire for the rich (which Obama defines as married couples with incomes above $250,000 and unmarrieds with income above $200,000) and should enact at least as many revenue-raisers as the President proposes.

A new report from Citizens for Tax Justice explores the tax proposals included in the federal budget outline that President Obama submitted to Congress on February 1. Like the budget he submitted last year, it is a vast improvement over the policies of the Bush years and continues to outline a progressive reform agenda.

But, also similar to last year, the President’s budget could be greatly improved with more aggressive policies to raise revenue. Over the coming decade, the President proposes to cut taxes by $3.5 trillion. We include in this figure the cost of extending most of the Bush tax cuts and relief from the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) as well as additional tax cuts that President Obama proposes.

His budget would offset a portion of this cost with provisions that would raise $760 billion over a decade by limiting the benefits of itemized deductions for the wealthy, reforming the U.S. international tax system and enacting other reforms and loophole-closing measures.

The report concludes that the federal government should collect at least as much revenue as the President proposes in order to avoid larger budget deficits. There are two bare minimum requirements for Congress to achieve this. First, Congress must not extend any more of the Bush tax cuts than President Obama proposes to extend. Second, Congress must raise at least as much revenue as President Obama has proposed ($760 billion over ten years) through loophole-closers and new revenue measures.

Read the full report.